Knee-Jerk 2014 Oscar Predictions

Probably 12 Years a Slave. Probably.

As I'm writing a more in-depth look at each of the six major categories, I thought it'd be a fun idea to give incredibly premature predictions for each nominated group. These predictions will inevitably change as the March 2 ceremony gets closer, but I couldn't resist throwing my hat into the prediction ring. I'll give a quick explanation of my picks, but again, I'll have a more "official" final prediction closer to the actual Academy Award show.

BEST PICTURE

Who Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Who Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Such a powerful film. No doubt it faces stiff competition from American Hustle and Gravity, but 12 Years is a safe pick for now.

BEST DIRECTOR

Who Should Win: David O. Russell
Who Will Win: Steve McQueen

I'd be very surprised if the Best Picture and Best Director weren't tied together this year, unlike last year with that Argo fiasco (still mad about the Affleck snub). If the decision is split, Russell would be most likely to win, but I'm really hoping that Spike Jonze gets a write-in win, 'cause that's totally a thing (it's not).

BEST ACTOR

Who Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Who Will Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor

Yes, there is a 12 Years a Slave theme going, and as much as I want to give some Oscar hardware to Leo, not this year.

BEST ACTRESS

Who Should Win: Sandra Bullock
Who Will Win: Amy Adams

Amy Adams deserves an award for having such an awesome year for being in a blockbuster, an indy flick, and an Oscar heavyweight (Man of Steel, Her, and American Hustle respectively). Bullock gave an incredible performance, enough to get her the Critics' Choice for Best Actress in an Action Movie, but she won for The Blind Side somehow, so karma. Blanchett won the Globe and Blue Jasmine could get some steam going into the award circuit, but Adams is a safe pick for now, as she also won a Globe and also took home a Critics' Choice Award.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Who Will Win: Jared Leto

Honestly, every year this category is such a crapshoot, and this year is no different. I'll go with Leto, as his role as a transgender in Dallas Buyers Club earned him a Globe and a Critics' Choice Award. I love Fassbender in 12 Years, but I doubt he'll get much love with Leto and Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) getting a lot of Oscar buzz. A potential dark horse is Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), as his counterpart in Tom Hanks was totally snubbed. If there was a year for this newcomer to win the Supporting statue, it would be this one.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Who Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

I wouldn't be surprised if Lawrence wins back-to-back Academy Awards. It doesn't happen very often, but she would be the one to pull it off. No one really stands out in this field, but the biggest dark horse is Nyong'o, who gave an emotional performance in the obviously highly critically acclaimed 12 Years a Slave. She also earned a Critics' Choice Award for Best Supporting Actress.

So there you have it. My way-too-early predictions. Again, these will change once the other award shows start distributing their respective hardware, but for now, I'll just leave this right here.

A full list of nominees can be found here... 2014 Oscar Nominees