Monday, January 14, 2013

70th Annual Golden Globes and their Oscar Implications

Even though Ben Affleck's directing in Argo seemingly went unnoticed by the Academy, the Hollywood Foreign Press would not deny him at least some recognition. Affleck, while not nominated for Best Director in the upcoming Academy Awards, won the Critics' Choice Award and now the Golden Globe for the category that the Oscar voters snubbed him from. Argo also went on to win Best Picture for a Drama further muddying the waters for who will come out with the top prize at the Academy Awards.

The other big winner at the Golden Globes was Les Misérables. Tom Hooper's film took home Best Picture for a Comedy or Musical, along with actress Anne Hathaway winning Best Supporting Actress and Hugh Jackman winning Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical. While previously not projected to be a big player for Best Picture in the Academy Awards (musicals never do well, and the critics were mixed at best), Les Mis may be a force to be reckoned with.

The Golden Globes may not have the biggest impact on the Academy Awards, but it can give people a bit of a clearer indication on who will come out on top during the Oscars. However, this year added further complications with Argo and Les Mis winning big, along with other surprising, "un-Oscar-esque" picks.

The complete list of winners at the Golden Globes after their effect on the 85th Academy Awards:

Best Picture Race

While Argo surprised the Oscar-bait film, Lincoln, at the Golden Globes, it should be no surprise that an association such as the Hollywood Foreign (emphasis on the Foreign part) Press would give the top prize to Affleck's film. The film dealt with a real-life crisis that was over-seas and had a clever Hollywood aspect to it. Not saying that Lincoln isn't worthy of the award, but the American history track doesn't necessarily bode well when going with something exotic like Argo. Spielberg's film should not be too afraid of a film like Argo winning, let alone one as a non-traditional Oscar pick like Les Misérables.

Life of Pi may make a late run, but it seems that Ang Lee's film might only receive awards for its technical prowess.After all the controversy surrounding it, it is doubtful that Zero Dark Thirty will win this one. If Kathryn Bigelow's film does, it would definitely be an unorthodox Oscar pick, as many a time, the Oscars steer far clear of controversial films (see Brokeback Mountain getting robbed by the inferior Crash). Argo and Zero Dark Thirty have history working against them too, as the last Best Picture to not have a Best Director nominee was Driving Miss Daisy in 1990. Driving Miss Daisey these two films are not, further diminishing their chances. Silver Linings Playbook is making every attempt to jockey into position, as the Weinstein Company knows how to parade a film during the Academy Awards season (see The King's Speech and The Artist).
While the Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild will be a better indicator, Lincoln should still be the favorite going into the Academy Awards. Safe pick. Ho-hum.

Best Actor Race

The winners in the dramatic and musical/comedy categories were Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and Hugh Jackman (Les Mis) respectively. No big surprise for either. While Jackman's performance was dominating in Les Mis, it remains doubtful that anyone in the Oscar field will overtake Day-Lewis. Unfortunately, this means once again, Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) will be left in the cold. Honestly, Denzel Washington (Flight) does not deserve to be here. Please insert John Hawkes. Bradley Cooper may have an outside chance, but Weinstein may choose to keep Lawrence's momentum going.
Again, Lincoln is such a stereotypical Oscar film, that Day-Lewis remains the favorite in this category. Winning the Golden Globe just solidifies this.

Best Actress Race

Expect this one to go to either of the two winners of the Golden Globes in drama and comedy. Jessica Chastain's Golden Globe winning performance, Zero Dark Thirty, has drawn rave reviews, despite the film's controversy. However, it remains to be seen if it has enough to beat out her Golden Globe Best Actress counterpart, Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook). The upcoming SAG awards should be better indications for this category.
Even though it could go to any of the women nominated, the best chances as of now go to Chastain or Lawrence.

Best Supporting Actor

This category is so open that even after Christoph Walz's Golden Globe win, the Oscar pool remains murky. The past five years have been so easy to predict, the award for Best Supporting Actor was due for a tricky pick. Walz beat out his co-star Leonardo DiCaprio, who many (myself included) believed to have been a major snub for the Oscars. While Robert DeNiro was not a competitor during the Golden Globes, he is probably Walz's biggest hurdle. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) was a sure-fire bet to win this a month ago, but now even he is not a given. Look out for Phillip Seymour Hoffman, from the underrated, underloved movie, The Master, who won a Critics Choice Award for this category.
Once again, it looks like the SAG awards will be better indicators than the Golden Globes for Best Supporting Actress.

Best Supporting Actress

While many of the women in this group are very much deserving, this award seems to be Anne Hathaway's (Les Mis) to lose. After winning the Golden Globe, she solidifies her chances to add a golden statuette to her growing award collection.
Not much more to say about this one, as it would be stupid to bet against Hathaway.

Best Director

Poor Ben Affleck. Any other year, this Golden Globe win would have strongly increased his lead in the Oscar race, especially after receiving the Critics' Choice Award for Best Director. Many times in the past, the Globes and the Oscars split, and this year will be no different, as unfortunately, Affleck didn't hear his name when the five other directors were announced. If Lincoln remains a heavy favorite, this one looks like it will go to Steven Spielberg. Look out for Ang Lee to sneak up and steal this one, even though Life of Pi may have dropped a bit after both the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards.
This may be similar to the 78th Academy Awards where Ang Lee won Best Director, but his picture, Brokeback Mountain was robbed by Crash. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) doesn't look like to be a factor, even though his film may get increasing attention from voters. It is doubtful that Michael Haneke (Amour) or Ben Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) have a chance, but the nomination is still an honor, as they beat Affleck and Bigelow. Although, I wonder if the Oscars have a "write-in" option...
Look to the DGA awards to get a better indicator on this one, as only Rob Marshall for his incredibly overrated musical, Chicago, failed to win the Oscar for Best Director in the last decade. However, Affleck is also a nominee, so this year may look to break that trend.

And now, to make this article longer, here is the complete list of Golden Globe nominees and winners for film...


Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty


WINNER: Les Miserables
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Moonrise Kingdom
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Silver Linings Playbook


WINNER: Ben Affleck, ArgoKathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained


WINNER: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight


WINNER: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea


WINNER: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson


WINNER: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Judi Dench, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Maggie Smith, Quartet
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs


WINNER: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Alan Arkin, Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln


WINNER: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy


WINNER: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Chris Terrio, Argo


Hotel Transvylvania
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph


A Royal Affair
The Intouchables
Kon Tiki
Rust and Bone


WINNER: Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
Alexandre Desplat, Argo
Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina
Tom Tywker, Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Cloud Atlas
John Williams, Lincoln


WINNER: "Skyfall" Skyfall
"For You" Act of Valor
"Not Running Anymore" Stand Up Guys
"Safe and Sound" The Hunger Games
"Suddenly" Les Miserables

Well, once again, you made it to the end. Congrats. Here's a funny video of the opening monologue by Amy Poehler and Tina Fey.

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